With a little over two years passed, we finally get to see the original Main Even for UFC 234. Unfortunately back in 2019 Whittaker suffered a serious injury weeks before his second Middleweight Championship defense with Kelvin Gastelum and was forced to withdraw from the fight. Fast forward two years later and Whittaker was matched up with a very tough opponent in Paulo Costa, but with fate having other ideas and Costa suffering an injury of his own, we finally get to see the fight we have wanted. This is a very interesting match-up, let's see how Vegas views this:
MONEYLINE:
Whittaker -280
Gastelum +220
TO GO THE DISTANCE:
Yes -120
No +100
METHOD OF VICTORY:
Whittaker by KO/TKO or DQ +220
Whittaker by Submission +1700
Whittaker by Decision/Technical Decision +220
Tie/Technical Tie +5000
Gastelum by KO/TKO or DQ +500
Gastelum by Submission +1800
Gastelum by Decision/Technical Decision +550 In these last two years we have seen both fighter's career's take different paths. Kelvin has always had an up and down career. The biggest victory for him happened in Shanghai where Gastelum violently knocked out Michael Bisping and put himself high in the rankings of the Middleweight division. Following that fight Kelvin proved tough in a battle with Ronaldo Souza where he earned himself a split decision victory. To begin 2019 Kelvin suffered back to back close decision losses to Israel Adesanya and Darren Till. Kelvin's frustration continued to mount in 2020 where he battled with injuries throughout the year and was only able to make one appearance in which he lost a quick fight to Jack Hermansson via heel hook. Finally Kelvin was able to right the ship by earning himself an impressive decision victory over Ian Heinisch where he dominated with his pressure and wrestling ability.
On the other hand Robert Whittaker has found consistent success in the UFC, only losing one bout in the last 8 years. "Bobby Reaper" is a proven veteran of the UFC and has an extremely impressive resume scoring wins over Darren Till, Derek Brunson, Ronaldo Souza, and Yoel Romero twice. Like Gastelum, Whittaker also suffered a defeat to Israel Adesanya in 2019 after becoming over zealous with his striking and getting countered by Adesanya. Robert is ready for his rematch with the Champ and now has to get through one last test before he has earned himself that fight.
So how do I see this fight playing out: MONEYLINE: Whittaker -280 With odds this heavy this is definitely a line I would avoid, but I just don't see a way that Gastelum can pull off the upset. Whittaker is the better fighter and has proven himself capable of fighting hard for a full 25 minutes. TO GO THE DISTANCE: No +100 This is the only line that I actually like for this matchup. Given the stakes of this fight I believe Whittaker will either score an early first round KO/TKO or will end up grinding Gastelum out in the Championship rounds.
PARLAY OPPURTUNITY:
Tracey Cortez (-300) / Alexandr Romanov (-140) Odds Combined +125 GOOD ODDS OPPURTUNITY:
Andrei Arlovski +100
SAME FIGHT PARLAY: Tony Gravely / Under 2.5 Rounds +126
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