The UFC is back on basic cable as it once again tries to broaden its audience and boy did they pick a good main event! Originally this event was headlined with a battle between two top ten Middleweight's in Darren Till and Marvin Vettori, but with Till announcing he recently suffered a broken collar bone in training camp the UFC needed someone who was ballsy enough to take a fight with only ten days notice. Cue Kevin "Loudmouth" Holland. Not only did Kevin step up for this fight, but he adamantly asked for it.
Vegas didn't waste any time updating Holland in for Till, so let's see what they think!
MONEYLINE:
Holland +260
Vettori -340
TO GO THE DISTANCE:
Yes +140
No -180
METHOD OF VICTORY:
Vettori by KO/TKO or DQ +500
Vettori by Submission +210
Vettori by Decision/Technical Decision +190
Tie/Technical Tie +5000
Holland by KO/TKO or DQ +500 Holland by Submission +1000
Holland by Decision/Technical Decision +950
But wait a second I thought it was only two weeks ago when I was talking about a main event with Kevin Holland in it. I argued that even though he was young he was an undeniable up and comer with a bright future in the division. Looking back on that post, I am disappointed. Holland's last performance was a mixture of why everyone likes him, mixed with a heavy dose of why everyone calls him "loudmouth". In Holland's last bout against Brunson we saw glaring holes in Kevin's game but also a serious question about his mental IQ. In a matchup that did not necessarily compliment Kevin's offensive approach he did absolutely nothing to adjust. Derek bullied him for five rounds controlling Kevin throughout the fight.
Kevin seemed lost for a full twenty-five minutes. Instead of worrying about Brunson's wrestling Holland seemed more concerned with verbal exchanges between Derek, Dana White, and Khabib. The only moment Kevin had he became over zealous and careless and was immediately put back to the mat while Brunson fought a very smart veteran fight. The real question that lingers now is will Kevin even take this fight seriously? In recent interviews Kevin said that he is upset about letting people down, but didn't seem to concerned with his lackluster performance.
On the other hand Marvin Vettori has made it crystal clear that he takes fighting very seriously and has his eyes set on UFC gold in his near future. Marvin has said countless times that he will be the UFC's first Italian champion and now with Holland in his way Vettori plans to add Kevin to his already impressive resume. Marvin is a top ten Middleweight for a reason, he has a strong clinch game, good wrestling, high level submission skills, and with his last performance against Jack Hermansson Vettori showed great boxing. Marvin was looking for a statement win over Darren Till to get a bid at the title after losing his first match with UFC's current Middleweight Champion Israel Adesanya by split decision back in 2018. With Till out and Holland in, Vettori still plans to be victorious.
So with all this being said what are my picks? MONEYLINE: Holland +260 At +260 we may never see Kevin Holland be this big of an underdog again (unless he loses this fight as well). Even though I am not highly confident in Kevin after his last performance I do believe that he finds a way to get it done. Coming fresh off of a frustrating loss Holland seems refocused in recent interviews even going as far as saying he doesn't want to be known as "loudmouth" anymore, but rather "trailblaze". I believe Kevin rebounds in a huge way to get back on track to the top of the Middleweight division.
TO GO THE DISTANCE: No -180 After Vettori's last fight we saw that he clearly has finishing power with his boxing, but even if Marvin's utilizes his wrestling to neutralize Holland's striking he will not be stagnant on the ground. Unlike Derek Brunson, Marvin is equipped with fantastic jiu-jitsu and will look to submit Kevin if needed, On the other hand, Holland, like always will be looking for a brutal knockout throughout.
METHOD OF VISTORY: Holland by KO/TKO or DQ +500 Holland by Decision/Technical Decision +950
If Kevin can pull off the upset he more than likely will catch Marvin ending his night early. Kevin has already stated that he does not believe this fight reaches the second round. With odds of +500 this is too promising to pass on. Also if Holland ends up fighting a gritty 5 round fight look for Holland to possibly even utilize his wrestling ability. We saw a glimpse of this when he was able to become to first person to ever to successfully takedown Derek Brunson. At +950 it's not a bad idea to lay some money down on this line as well. PARLAY OPPURTUNITY: Julian Marquez (-200) / Impa Kasanganay (-305) +100 Odds Combined EVEN ODDS OPPURTUNITY: Mackenzie Dern +100 + MONEY OPPURTUNITY: SCOTT HOLTZMAN/MATEUSZ GAMROT Will the Fight Go the Distance: No +150
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