The UFC is back at the Apex in Las Vegas which feels like its second home with a main event that is sure to bring some explosiveness. Rising star Kevin Holland is set to square off against veteran Derek Brunson for what should be one hell of a clash in the Middleweight division! Vegas has finally released the odds for the event this weekend, so let’s take a look!
Middleweight Main Event: Derek Brunson vs. Kevin Holland MONEYLINE: Brunson +145 Holland -170 TO GO THE DISTANCE: Yes +150 No -200
METHOD OF VICTORY:
Holland by KO/TKO or DQ +160
Holland by Submission +1200
Holland by Decision/Technical Decision +340
Tie/Technical Tie +5000
Brunson by KO/TKO or DQ +380
Brunson by Submission +1800
Brunson by Decision/Technical Decision +380
HOW WILL THE FIGHT END: TKO/KO -140 Submission +850 Points +135 After Kevin Holland’s unbelievable knockout of Ronaldo Souza where he was able to KO him from off his back can anyone really say he is an up and comer anymore? In a little less than two years Holland has went from a nobody to a household name. The only person comparable to Holland’s rise in the middleweight division would be Israel Adesanya. He has been on an absolute tear in the UFC racking up a 9-2 record, and a ridiculous 5-0 last year tying Roger Huerta and Neil Magny for the most wins in one calendar year. If Holland is able to overcome Brunson this Saturday he will find himself further up the ranks in the Middleweight division and possibly one win away from a title shot.
Derek Brunson is no stranger to a challenge. It seems like every rising star in the Middleweight division always finds themselves squared off against him. Derek is a true veteran and has been fighting in the UFC since 2012. In the last nine years Derek has fought seventeen times earning himself an impressive 12-5 record in the UFC. Unlike Holland, he has been nowhere near as active only fighting once in the last year. Derek found himself in a similar situation to his upcoming bout vs Holland being matched up with Edmen Shahbazyan. Shahbazyan was a young 23 year old phenom who came into that fight a perfect 11-0 and with a 4-0 record in the UFC, while Brunson was coming off of a more than a year layoff. Brunson was a huge underdog going into this fight but completely dominated from start to finish. He started the second round by landing some powerful strikes and in particular a vicious combination at the horn of round 2 in which many believed that Herb Dean actually ended the fight. Derek put Edmen out of his misery within 30 seconds of round three and showed that young kid what an ass whooping felt like. One thing we know about Brunson is you can never count him out!
So knowing all of this, what are my picks?
MONEYLINE:
Holland -170
Derek Brunson has lost 5 times in the UFC, and all of his losses are against high caliber opponents (Israel Adesanya, Ronaldo Souza, Anderson Silva, Robert Whittaker, Yoel Romero). I believe Kevin Holland is the next big thing in the Middleweight division and is in the same class as all the fighter's Brunson lost to. If Holland can defeat Brunson this weekend that can possibly lead into a super fight between Adesanya and himself. With all that being said at -170 I will avoid that heavy favorite.
TO GO THE DISTANCE: No -200
With both fighters having such violent styled offenses I do not see a way that this fight goes the distance, not to mention the fact that it is a 5 round fight.
METHOD OF VICTORY:
Holland by KO/TKO or DQ +160
Holland by Submission +1200
Holland by Decision/Technical Decision +340
Tie/Technical Tie +5000
Brunson by KO/TKO or DQ +380
Brunson by Submission +1800
Brunson by Decision/Technical Decision +380 With so many odds here the one that stands out for me is Holland by KO/TKO or DQ +160. I do believe Kevin will end up catching Brunson on a wild exchange during this fight but not enough to lay money down on any of these lines.
HOW WILL THE FIGHT END: TKO/KO -140 Finally my favorite betting prop of the night. This is the line I will be laying my money down on. With this specific prop no matter who wins the fight, as long as it ends in a KO/TKO you walk away a winner (available on FanDuel). I believe if there is anyway Brunson can pull off an upset he would have to catch Holland, even though I think this is unlikely at -140 at least you have insurance just in case Brunson does rise to the challenge.
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