The UFC returns to Phoenix for two Championship bouts and the clash between multiple longtime UFC veterans. The main card is stacked from start to finish with nothing but well-known fighters. The MMA community has been blessed with the return of Cowboy Cerrone, Joe Lauzon, Tony Ferguson, Michael Chandler, Shogun Rua and St. Preux. If those bouts are not enough to get you excited we also get to watch Rose Namajunas go for her second title defense and revenge on her old rival Carla Esparza who finds herself on a five fight winning streak. Last but certainty not least we have the highly disrespected Charles Oliveira who is set to meet with the always dangerous Justin Gaethje. This is a card I have been looking forward to since it was announced, so lets dive right in!
Ever since Khabib Nurmagomedov retired in October of 2020 the Lightweight division has been up for grabs. The vacated title left room for a new Champion to be crowned and not long after we saw Charles Oliveira matched up against Michael Chandler to determine who would be the next king. With Chandler falling just short of UFC gold we finally saw Charles Oliveira become a champion. Many believed he was lucky to make it out of that first round, and at the time I was also one of those people, but six months later we saw Charles yet again work his magic. For Oliveira's first title defense he was paired up with Dustin Poirier who many believed was the current uncrowned Lightweight champion. The amount of disrespect that Charles faced going into that fight was almost laughable. Questions were asked to Poirier about what his plans were after he was the Champion, and everyone seemed to forget about the current Lightweight champ. Charles would once again battle through diversity in the fight and eventually took Dustin's back and finished him via rear-naked choke, adding to his record of most submission victories in UFC history. Now with Dustin in his rear-view mirror Oliveira will look to add to his legacy and will take on the UFC's most violent fighter in Justin Gaethje.
Justin's road back to a title shot was a quick turnaround, but it was also not the easiest route. After falling short to Khabib in Abu Dhabi in 2020 Justin took some much needed time off. After suffering a Championship defeat many fighters take time off to recover, and I believe Gaethje did exactly that and it benefitted him greatly. More than a year after losing to Khabib, Gaethje looked to make his return to the Octagon in a major way by announcing he would be fighting Michael Chandler. With Chandler also falling short on his Championship bid both fighters were coming off a loss and were looking to rebound in a big way. Gaethje vs Chandler would take place in Madison Square Garden and would go down as possibly the most exciting three round fight in UFC history. Both men would walk forward into the fire the entire fight and it immediately became a war. When you fight Justin Gaethje the last thing you want to do is get into a war, and that's precisely what Chandler did, and he paid for it. Justin went on to win the fight by unanimous decision and would say in his post fight interview that his next bout would be for the title, and now here we are.
With Justin and Charles set to cross paths, this will for sure be a battle of style's. What should be a very competitive fight that can go a thousand different ways lets see what Vegas thinks!
MONEYLINE:
Justin Gaethje (+150) / Charles Oliveira (-170)
TOTAL ROUNDS:
Over 2.5 (-145) / Under 2.5 (+110)
The last two times Charles fought he was the under dog, and now fighting what could be his toughest opponent, he's favored. I guess I can say I'm not that surprised, but at the same time I am surprised that he's almost a 2-1 favorite. Like I said before, this fight can end a thousand different ways, but I think if these two men fought ten times Charles would win six of the ten bouts. I believe Oliveira is Championship tested and it's going to take a lot out of any man to take his title. Do I think Justin can obliterate Charles, absolutely I do, but I also can see Charles taking down Justin and completely neutralizing all his offense. As a betting man, I will lay off the moneyline completely because I don't feel confident enough to put money on either fighter. If I had to make a choice I would lean Charles Oliveira (-170) because he always seems to find a way through the fire and comes out on top.
As far as the total rounds go, this is where I will be placing my wager, I like Under 2.5 (+110). At plus money I believe this is the safer choice. Charles Oliveira is not looking to outpoint you, he's constantly looking for a finish. And Justin Gaethje isn't known as the most violent man for no reason, he will bring the fight. I don't see any chance that this fight goes the distance and I also see either Charles winning on the ground via submission or Justin winning by KO if he can land his punch. Either way it would still be a victory for us, I'm excited for this one!
With so many good fights this weekend there are plenty of opportunities to make some money, let's take a look at my top bets for this entire card.
TOP BETS FOR THIS CARD:
PARLAY OPPURTUNITY:
Lupita Godinez (-170) + Brandon Royval (-240)
Odds Combined: +125
Tracy Cortez / Melissa Gatto
Tracy Cortez -150
Blagoy Ivanov / Marcos Rogerio De Lima
Blagoy Ivanov -125
BIG ODDS OPPURTUNITY:
Ovince Saint Preux / Maurico Rua
Maurico Rua +200
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