Back in 2014 the UFC matched-up their new up and coming star from Dublin, Ireland with all the momentum in the world behind him against a shy rising star from Louisiana with not nearly the same amount of hype. Who would've thought that almost seven years ago this would be the start of an epic trilogy? No one saw that coming, and in fact this fight was not even the Co-Main event of the night. Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier were both in the middle of climbing the ranks of the featherweight division and even though Dustin had been in the UFC for several years before Conor made his UFC debut, Conor was the fighter everyone was talking about.
Dustin was the more experienced fighter but Conor‘s ability to get inside his opponents head was unparalleled. Conor mentally broke Dustin before they even stepped into the cage. McGregor was on a different level than any other UFC fighter in history during his rise and he was able to utilize the fame that came with his success to his benefit. Unlike other fighters who would shy away from the spotlight, McGregor made a habit of it. Not only did his fame help booster his career to new levels, but Conor found a way to use all the pressure as motivation and did not disappoint. With every victory Conor’s fame grew rapidly but so did his performances. It seemed like the bigger the fight was the better version of himself would always show up.
Back at UFC 176 Conor was able to scare Dustin into getting caught up in the moment rather than focusing on the fight itself. Dustin was very tentative and even said that “he felt Conor’s aura that night“, everyone did. The Notorious One was able to add another highlight to his already growing reel. In under two minutes Conor shut Poirier’s lights out.
Even at one fight a piece and with everything on the line, will Conor reclaim his "Notorious" ways or can Dustin once again prove he is the frontrunner for the UFC Lightweight title? Let's see if Vegas gives any edge to either fighter.
MONEYLINE: Dustin Poirier -120 Conor McGregor +100 TO GO THE DISTANCE:
Yes +330
No -480
Seven years after these two first crossed paths each fighter's careers have taken completely different routes yet similar. Both Dustin and Conor would later go on to claim UFC gold (Poirier's title was Interim), but Conor became a global icon. Conor officially reached billionaire status and fighting became secondary compared to the life he created for himself outside the Octagon. During McGregor's rise to fame he fought frequently, but after his legendary success his fight rate dropped significantly. In 2016 he fought three times moving up to Welterweight and losing to Nate Diaz, then claiming his revenge on Diaz, and then he wrapped up the year by collecting his second UFC title simultaneously. After that he took the entirety of 2017 off before dropping another fight to Khabib in 2018 and then also took off 2019. He would later go onto to fight only once in 2020 against a far inferior opponent in Donald Cerrone, and then decided to come back this year and got knocked out by someone he has already beaten. Conor claims that he wants to fight as much as possible this year, and that kind of dedication to the game can pay major dividends if he puts in the work and makes adjustments.
While Conor was on his roller coaster lifestyle, "The Diamond" was evolving with every fight to become the best version of himself that he is now. After Dustin suffered a heart wrenching loss to McGregor in 2014 he fought a total of thirteen times in between their original fight and the rematch. At this point Poirier was a completely different fighter. He racked up ten wins with only two losses and one no contest, needless to say Dustin was very active. With each fight that passed Dustin would continue to be counted out, whether it was a matchup against Justin Gaethje or when he fought for the Interim title against Max Holloway.
Poirier would continue to prove the doubters wrong and displayed his true growth within the sport of mixed martial arts showing his insane amount of heart and durability. Seven years removed from his first fight with Conor, Dustin was now battle tested and a chance at revenge couldn't of came and a better time for him. He would once again go into the fight as a heavy under dog but once again would claim victory. He took Conor completely off his game with debilitating leg kicks followed up with his typical relentless offensive barrage of heavy accurate punches. When Dustin smelled blood he hopped all over McGregor and put himself directly into the spotlight of the sports world with the biggest victory of his career.
So with all the history leading up to this final fight, who do I see walking out victorious? MONEYLINE: N/A TO GO THE DISTANCE: YES +380
This fight can go a thousand different ways. In order to make a pick and feel confident enough to lay money down on it I would have to see Conor inside the Octagon more. There are minor adjustments he can make going into this third fight that will pay off tremendously. If Conor checks Dustin's leg kicks or fights at a distance we may see Conor mimic the first fight he had with Poirier, but if Dustin decides to utilize his wrestling more this can be a major advantage for him. Wearing on Conor and bringing this fight to the Championship rounds is a very smart game plan for Dustin if that is the route he chooses to go.
As far as this fight going the distance, I genuinely do believe this fight comes down to the judges scorecards. I believe both fighter's are going to make the necessary adjustments and counter each other well. I foresee a war between Conor and Dustin similar to the second fight between Conor and Diaz. Look for Dustin to switch it up and bring this fight to the mat several times. At +330 these are odds too good to miss out on!
TOP BETS FOR THIS CARD: PARLAY OPPURTUNITY: Zhalgas Zhumagulov (-360) + O'Malley/Moutinho Not To Go Distance (-290) Odds Combined: -125
Trevin Giles / Dricus Du Plessis
Under 2.5 Rounds: -120
Tai Tuivasa / Greg Hardy: Greg Hardy: +110 Gilbert Burns / Stephen Thompson Stephen Thompson: -150
Carlos Condit / Max Griffin
To Go Distance: -110
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